Case study on grid and dispatch in South Eastern Europe

The case study focused on verifying the feasibility of dispatch for the least-cost electricity generation mix calculated on a EU scale with TIMES, and analysed the influence of short-term variability on long-term investments and system configurations. TIMES PanEU operates with 12 time slices in a year and a modelling horizon between 2015 and 2050, divided into 5-year intervals. Such a coarse time resolution may seem too coarse when modelling significant system changes involving variable renewables. A model of power systems in five EU Member States (Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia) in PLEXOS operating on hourly level was used to verify feasibility of dispatch in 2030 for a power system obtained with TIMES PanEU. For the study, the least-cost electricity mix computed by TIMES PanEU for the Coalitions for a Low-carbon path pathway was analysed.

Message 8: Feasibility of dispatch for the power system of Southeast Europe obtained in TIMES PanEU is verified for 2030.

It was confirmed that hourly balancing of variable renewable energy sources is possible with projected generation capacities in Southeast Europe obtained in TIMES PanEU for 2030. Figure 13 illustrates a close match between PLEXOS and TIMES for electricity generation in 2030 for the Coalitions for a Low-carbon path pathway. A similar analysis could be useful for other Member States and for different years, especially when high variability in the demand for and, more importantly, the supply of electricity is recorded. This could shed light on the selection of technologies and additional measure such as increased storage or higher base-load capacity could be considered. Demand side management measures might be also particularly useful as they could help the demand curve get closer to the supply curve.

Electricity generation in 2030 for the Coalitions for a low carbon path pathway Figure 13. Electricity generation in 2030 for the Coalitions for a low carbon path pathway